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US equities stabilized as the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% to 5,867, while bond yields rose amid expectations for a gradual Federal Reserve easing cycle starting in 2025. UBS forecasts the S&P 500 reaching 6,600 by the end of next year, despite fewer anticipated rate cuts, and advises investors to focus on high-grade bonds and diversified income strategies.
UBS projects the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by the end of next year, despite fewer anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, now expected to occur in June and September 2025. The Fed's decisions will depend on economic data, particularly labor and inflation trends, while UBS advises investors to focus on high-grade bonds and diversified income strategies.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 400 points, reversing a 10-day losing streak, as investors reacted positively to a lower-than-expected inflation report, despite looming government shutdown concerns. Nvidia's stock attempted a recovery, while shares of Trump Media and Technology fell sharply after the president-elect moved shares to a revocable trust. FedEx initially soared over 20% on earnings but later declined, while Carnival's stock rose 3% following better-than-expected quarterly results.
US equities stabilized as the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% to 5,867, while 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.57%. UBS forecasts the index to reach 6,600 by the end of next year, despite fewer anticipated Fed rate cuts, emphasizing a focus on high-grade bonds and diversified income strategies.
UBS forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by the end of next year, despite expectations for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts, now anticipated in June and September 2025. The Fed is closely monitoring labor market trends and inflation, with core inflation currently at 2.8%. Investors are advised to focus on high-quality bonds and diversified income strategies while considering the overvaluation of the US dollar.
UBS Asset Management’s Kevin Zhao plans to buy US Treasuries during the holiday season, anticipating that President-elect Trump’s policies will negatively impact economic growth. Despite a market trend of selling off Treasuries, Zhao believes yields will rise to 4.6% before year-end, and he sees potential buying opportunities amid holiday market volatility. He argues that the benefits of tax cuts are being overestimated and may not materialize until 2026.
UBS Asset Management’s Kevin Zhao plans to buy US Treasuries during the holiday season, anticipating that President-elect Trump’s policies will negatively impact economic growth. Despite a market trend of selling off Treasuries, Zhao believes yields will rise to 4.6% before year-end, and he is adjusting his strategy to capitalize on potential market volatility. He argues that the benefits of tax cuts are being overestimated and may not materialize until 2026.
US stocks rebounded on Friday as inflation data indicated a slowdown in price increases for November, with the Dow Jones up 0.8%, S&P 500 rising 0.7%, and Nasdaq gaining 0.6%. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed monthly deceleration, although inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. Concerns over a potential government shutdown and tariff threats from Trump weighed on global markets, while Novo Nordisk's shares plummeted 20% following disappointing trial results for its obesity drug.
Bitcoin dipped to $92,000 amid a significant leverage flush, with the cryptocurrency down 1.5% on the day. Analysts noted this pullback, which mirrors past corrections, presents an optimal re-accumulation opportunity, despite a total liquidation of $1.4 billion across the crypto market.The recent cooler PCE inflation data provided some relief, with inflation coming in at 2.4%, slightly below expectations. This has led to a modest increase in market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy adjustments.
A potential government shutdown just before Christmas could disrupt holiday travel, leading to longer airport wait times due to increased TSA staff absences. However, mail deliveries and Social Security payments would continue unaffected, as the Postal Service operates independently and Social Security is a mandatory program. Stock markets may react with short-term volatility, but historically, shutdowns have had minimal lasting effects on equity performance.
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